With Democracy in the Balance

What should I do?

What is happening in California is very serious. As best as I understand it, ICE quickly moved on from trying to arrest and deport people with a criminal record, or people ICE thought should have a criminal record, to people who are just here subject to a ruling or policy that ICE (or DHS Sec. Noem/Trump) felt could be ignored. Some people in California were opposed to that, and made their opposition felt. And some of those people were aggressive and/or destructive. Which is exactly what Trump wanted.

As David Frum, Tom Nichols, and the Economist, three center right sources, all point out, Trump is going to use so called “unrest and insurrection” to justify authoritarian behavior, including and not limited to violent suppression of lawful protest with the military, and federalization and possible suspension of the election process, including the mid-terms. As I am writing this, Trump has taken control of 2000 National Guardsman from the State of California, and mobilized 500 US Marines. Nothing good can come of this. Marines are not trained for managing domestic civilian disturbances. [I started writing this Monday evening. This morning President Trump federalized another 2000 National Guard and Sec Def Hegseth ordered another 700 Marines deployed. It is not clear at all what these additional forces will do, especially since the original force is not fully deployed and it looks like basic things like a place to sleep, and food, have not been well cared for.]

Worse, in Trump’s order the mission is not defined and indeed there is no mention of Los Angeles or California. The Secretary of Defense, an alcoholic Fox News weekend anchor, has been given broad authority by Trump to combat insurrection wherever and whenever he think it is happening. This is kind of a blank check¹ — a license to deploy troops trained in delivering lethal force to foreign adversaries to wherever the toady SecDef deems they are needed domestically.

This is how America as we know it slips off to oblivion.

Georgetown Professor Steve Vladek summarized it when Trump first issued his “memorandum.”

The TL;DR here is that Trump has not (yet) invoked the Insurrection Act, which means that the 2000 additional troops that will soon be brought to bear will not be allowed to engage in ordinary law enforcement activities without violating a different law—the Posse Comitatus Act. All that these troops will be able to do is provide a form of force protection and other logistical support for ICE personnel. Whether that, in turn, leads to further escalation is the bigger issue (and, indeed, may be the very purpose of their deployment). But at least as I’m writing this, we’re not there yet.

The additional mobilization of the Marines and federalization of more National Guard is clearly an escalation. But it isn’t clear that either the National Guard federalization or the Marine deployment violates the Posse Comitatus law, which largely prevents the use of the US Military in domestic matters.

If these troops provide logistical support to ICE, or other kinds of support short of engaging in violence against protestors (even if those protestors are behaving unlawfully, that’s what police and other agents are for) then Trump will have tip toed up to the line, but not crossed it. Don’t hold your breath. [And events today suggest the line has been crossed. California is suing.]

Trump sees this as dominance theater, and good politics. He will use the need to establish law and order as a result of a confrontation he provoked to justify the use of violence, and Trump thinks America will be just fine with this. When mentally ill and possibly brain damaged Democratic Senator Fetterman is calling out “anarchy and true chaos” you know Trump thinks he is on to something. And to be fair, some of the protestors have set cars on fire, and engaged in other destructive behavior. At the same time, the vast majority of the protests have been peaceful.

Trump may or may not be right about this. It’s true that much of America is generally supportive of more restrictive immigration policy. But it is unclear they are supportive of mass round ups of people living here productively and peacefully. Early polling is quite negative. Trump wants videos of violent, radical left, protestors attacking federal agents. He thinks this will galvanize his support. And I kind of agree — violent protests are not going to help the cause of the resistance. But… If we look at history… The violence directed against the civil rights movement, in states like Alabama, depicted on TV and other news sources, ultimately turned public opinion way from States Rights and toward Civil Rights. It’s hard to know how this will play out today, and how the public will react if Trump overplays his hand.

What is clearly important is that protesters should not take the bait Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement understood how dangerous even the slightest provocation was to keeping public opinion on their side. We should be mindful of that today and not let Trump goad us into what he wants.

So what can we do? (Hat tip to JD on this part of the post.)

America is at a critical moment in its history. Dictatorship or democracy are hanging in the balance. The slightest movement could tip the scales. It is a very legitimate question, “What should I do? How can I help?”

I have been thinking about this some, and while I have some thoughts to share, more than any other of my posts, I really, really, would like to hear how other people are approaching this problem. Please use the comments and share your thoughts. I am kind of begging you. I would also like to say right up front, that I am not a paragon of virtue. I don’t follow all of these suggestions below, myself.

For a start, let’s break it down into two classes of answers. As another friend said, (H/T JR) the issues we are facing are so numerous it is impossible to feel like you understand what is going on and know what to do. It is too big. So two parts: The first is how we can help more people have better lives; the second is how we can help make our politics and political leadership better. Obviously the two are related, but I think they are distinct areas of inquiry.

How can we help more people have better lives?

1. Donate.

The first and most obvious answer to this question, is DONATE! MAGA is tearing down the federal infrastructure slowly built up in the post WWII era. Research. Foreign Aid. Healthcare. Education. Disaster Relief. And much more. While I suppose we could have a good faith intellectual debate about whether it was a good idea for the federal government to be so heavily involved in all of these areas, ending it all abruptly is simply cruel and inhumane. (See my previous post on lack of empathy.)

Anything that we can do to support organizations that are desperately trying to fill the gaping holes left by sudden US retrenchment is going to help save lives. Literally. Secretary of State, acting National Security Advisor, head of the National Archives, and probably a few other things, Marco Rubio called the idea that the collapse of US aid would cause people to die a “lie.” The Washington Post gave his response four pinocchios.

I am not going to tell you where to donate. But I am going to tell you to donate. It isn’t going to make up for the lost government funding, but every penny helps. In my family, we donate a little bit to a lot of different organizations. But you don’t have to do it that way. Another approach is to pick an issue that is most important you (H/T EJ), develop expertise in that issue, and donate to organizations that further your perspective. I would point out that the more expertise you develop around an area, the more valuable you are to those organizations, which brings me to another way you can help.

2. Join a Board

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) need money, but they also need thoughtful, energetic, helpful board members. Typically joining the board of an NGO requires a meaningful donation, so if you are focused on a particular issue, you can devote your time, money, and expertise by becoming a board member. The more local your focus the easier it will be to join a board.

3. Advocate

Share your expertise and passion with your community, friends, colleagues, family, and to the extent possible, people in a leadership position. Don’t wear out your welcome, but measured, thoughtful, information from a trusted source is in short supply these days. Getting people interested and possibly excited about what you are doing can help start the snowball of growing support going down the hill.

4. Volunteer

If you have the time, putting it to use by helping others can be super rewarding. Many of my friends in the media business are between jobs. If you have some free time, pick up a volunteer gig. If you happen to live in New York City, NY Cares makes it super easy. If you have a particular focus, then volunteer in that field. It is a great way to meet people who also are working in that area, and build a network that could lead to a larger role or board position.

5. Read

This is more important than you might think. It is getting harder and harder to know what’s what anymore. Media has become more partisan. Governments and political parties are taking advantage of social media’s tendency to prioritize engagement by creating more and more inflammatory and at best partially true content. AI tools allow for highly credible, entirely fake content to be created with the touch of a button. People tend to consume content that confirms their pre-existing beliefs. It is important to work hard to swim against these trends.

I have found that good sources of thoughtful perspective are academics on substack. I learn economics (and a lot of other stuff) from Paul Krugman, Brad deLong, Dean Baker, Claudia Sahm, and Noah Smith. I learn about the war in Ukraine from Phillips O’Brien. I learn about foreign affairs from Dan Drezner. I follow the Supreme Court with Steve Vladek. History with Heather Cox Richardson. In general, I find that academics have deeper understanding, and are more intellectually honest. In today’s world we need that.

I also read a fair number of right wing commentators. Mostly it is conservatives who have rejected MAGA. Right leaning thinkers who embrace MAGA, tend to bend into pretzels to justify the unjustifiable. I have no patience for that.

When I read truly thoughtful, smart people, who generally give credit to the arguments made by those they disagree with, when those arguments are made in good faith, I gain back some faith in the future of humanity.

How can we make our politics and political leadership better?

Before I get to some suggested tactics, a brief philosophical note. The only way to change our politics and our political leadership is to win elections. The. Only. Way.

Winning elections requires messaging and policies that appeal to over 50% of the voters. This means, unless you are truly the median voter, that you need the support of people who disagree with you. There is very little room for ideological purity and winning elections. As Matt Yglesias has argued, the key to success in politics is to do popular stuff. I agree! I am in favor of bending the arc of history towards justice. But I am realistic in understanding that not everyone agrees with what I think is just, or is willing to support change at the speed I would prefer. I recommend this ‘do popular stuff’ approach as a frame for the task of improving our politics and our political leadership. The worst trend in politics today is the cynical attitude, “it doesn’t matter.” I submit it does matter. That there are real differences between MAGA and other political forces, and that small wins are better than no wins at all. OK. On to tactics.

1. Vote!

It seems so elementary but not everyone does it. And yes, I am mindful of the fact that we don’t make voting easy in the United States, and that the ease of voting (ID’s, number of polling places, procedures, etc.) has become a partisan football. But the most basic way to impact an election is to vote. I have heard people say,
”my vote doesn’t matter, I don’t live in a swing state.” This is nonsense! The Presidential election only happens every four years. We have Election Day every year. Local elections of some kind, happen every year. They are important! The composition of your local and state legislatures can have a big impact on people’s lives. They also can build up party muscle, talent, and bench strength. Vote in every election. Every. Election.

2. Educate yourself

Learn about the candidates. Learn about the issues. Understand where the candidates you generally agree with are coming from and why. Just as important, understand where the candidates you generally don’t agree with are coming from, and why. As noted previously, getting to the bottom of an issue is not easy to do in today’s world, but it is work worth doing.

3. Donate

When I suggest political donations, I generally get two responses. The first is “I did donate to Kamala’s campaign, and look what it got me!” The second is “fuck those guys, they are all spineless idiots letting Trump run roughshod.” A few thoughts…

Presidential campaigns collect and spend a lot of money. It is highly likely that some of that spend is well beyond the point of diminishing returns. Yes, donate to Presidential candidates you like. But also donate to support Senators, Congressman, Governors, Mayors, State Legislators, City Councilman, Board of Selectman, etc. Your money goes a lot farther the further down in the ballot you go. In addition to candidates, I also donate to the DCCC, the DSCC, and the DNC. I don’t love these organizations, but, as you may recall from what I wrote above, I am not a purist.

There are also PACs you can donate to, that may be aligned to issues or candidates you support.

Finally, I too would like the Democrats to show more spine. But here is the problem. They have no leader. The leader of the party is either the President, or the person running for President. The Democrats have neither now. Sadly, there is no substitute.

4. Volunteer

There are lots of ways to help campaigns as a volunteer. Today, not surprisingly, there is an app for that. Many campaigns create virtual phone banks that allow them to recruit volunteers to make calls on behalf of the campaign. Campaign’s websites often have “volunteer” pages where you can sign up to help canvas for a campaign. Independent organizations like Vote Save America, offer another way to volunteer both virtually and in person for a campaign.

5. Write

Politicians like other people, want to hold on to their jobs. They follow public opinion closely. This is more than just polling. They track who calls and/or writes to their office and why they called, very closely. It is surprisingly effective to call or write to your local elected official to express your opinion. If you also happen to have donated to their campaign, make sure you mention that in your contact. At the risk of pointing out the obvious…. politicians get a lot of mail, much of it very over the top. The letters from people who donated, that are thoughtful, smart and persuasive, are more likely to be those that staff select to show the boss.

6. March

Peaceful protest is very important. Emphasis on peaceful. When we take to the streets in vast numbers we send a message to every elected official that they are putting their jobs and careers at risk. If we are motivated enough to march we are motivated enough to vote, and people who vote are who politicians care about.

7. Run

School board. Town Council. Community Board. Whatever. Run for something. Who knows? You might win! God knows we need more sane, smart people in government.² It starts by attending party meetings and getting to know the people who are involved in the process.

8. Demand

Barack Obama, Joe Biden, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Dan Quayle, John Kerry, John Edwards, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Tim Kaine, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz. What do all of these people have in common? Along with Sarah Palin, they all headed their parties presidential ticket. Some of them even won! It is time. Too many of them are lurking in the shadows, or making only modest effort. These people need to come together and agree to a statement supporting democracy, the rule of law, and calling out what MAGA is doing. Something like…

Dear America,

We the undersigned all sought the highest elected offices, or held the highest elected offices in our great nation. While we disagree on many things, one thing we all agree upon is our unwaivering support for the United States Constitution, and our sober, and solemn support for the rule of law. We swore an oath and we are still bound by our word.

Today we are seeing repeated and blatant disregard for the rule of law. It is un-American and it cannot stand. We call on everyone in America, whether in government or not, to recommit to the rule of law. To swear or rewear to the oath to “preserve protect and defend the Consitution.” To remember that people who did not vote as you would like, or do not support your policies are not “enemies.” They are opponents. To remind ourselves that the most important moments to adhere to the rule of law, is when our nation faces it’s greatest tests.

We can and must do better, America.

God bless you, and God bless the United States of America

1. A blank check that is going to cost over $134MM in LA alone.

2. This assumes that readers of this newsletter are sane and smart, notwithstanding that the writer of this newsletter is not!